Our Commentary

Market Update

Domestic and International equity markets continue to digest the impact of the U.S. and Chinese tariffs on GDP across the world. After dropping more than 5% during the first few weeks of May, there was a three-day bounce at the beginning of last week. Hope of a quick rebound was promptly dashed on Friday when stocks gave back almost all of those gains.
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May 2019 Commentary

Global risk assets continued to rally in April. First quarter earnings are coming in better than expected, Central banks around the globe remain accommodative, economic data saw improvement, US & China trade negotiations appeared to be going well, and the market fought through some key technical levels to find all-time highs.
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April 2019 Commentary

Most of the major U.S. equity indices rose in March, and all of the indices notched their biggest quarterly gains in nearly a decade. The rise in US equity markets was attributed to signs of progress on U.S.; China trade negotiations and indications that central banks would keep interest rates low as global growth slows. However, an inversion of the yield curve (when the yield of the 10-year bond falls below the yield of the 3-month Treasury bill)....
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March 2019 Commentary

The US equity markets rose again during the second month of the new year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both posting their best two-month start to a year in nearly three decades. The indices’ rise was aided by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, thawing of China trade tensions, and better than expected corporate earnings. The gains are in sharp contrast to the melt-down last year, after the worst declines since the financial crisis...
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February Bonus Commentary

We have pointed out in recent comments that U.S. equity markets are at a critical juncture following the January rebound. All major indexes are hovering right at the 200-day moving average. At this point, the Dow is the only one to have cleared it and is now resting on it after losing some ground last week. The broader S&P 500 has not been able to trade above it and has also fallen back...
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February 2019 Commentary

It’s déjà vu all over again. 2019 is off to a good start, just like January of 2018. Stocks climbed during the first month of the year, with the S&P 500 rising the most in January since 1987, and the Dow posting its strongest January since 1989. Investors may take comfort in a well-known market adage says that so goes January, so goes the year. And historical information going back to 1950 shows that this barometer has been wrong only ten times in those 68 years, for an 87% accuracy ratio.
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January 2019 Commentary

Be careful what you wish for. Last month we hoped for a “Santa Claus” rally in the markets (defined as a rally beginning the day after Christmas and extends through the end of the year). Well, the Dow soared more than 1,000 points on December 26th, the largest 1 day increase in history. But this little post-Christmas gift was not enough to undo an ugly December and a brutal year in general for the markets...
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December 2018 Commentary

The markets gyrated wildly during the month of November, but managed a bit of stability at the close of the month. The major indices remain well below their highs reached earlier this year. Technology shares and oil weighed on the indices again this month, but progress in trade negotiations and a softening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve helped to revive the markets at the month’s end. In fact, during the last week of the month the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ posted their best...
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November 2018 Commentary

Without question, October was a brutal month for investors. The primary US equity benchmarks recorded sizable losses during the month, and at one point more than two thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 were
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September 2018 Commentary

The US equity markets closed the month of August with gains despite apprehension concerning trade policy. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 all reached new highs during the month. The S&P 500 had its best August performance since 2014, while the NASDAQ posted its best gain since 2000. All of the major US stock indices are in solid positive territory for the year to date, after a shaky February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up about 5%, the S&P 500 has gained 8.5%...
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August 2018 Commentary

The US stock markets rose during the month of July as strong corporate earnings trumped weakness in Technology shares. Additionally, fears of a prolonged trade war with China eased a bit as news reported that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He may restart trade discussions. All the major US stock indices finished higher for the month of July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a 5% gain, the S&P 500 added 3.8%, the NASDAQ rose 2.4%
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July 2018 Commentary

The US stock markets gyrated between gains and losses during the month of June, as investors assessed the impact of proposed trade tariffs, political turmoil in the Eurozone, and signals of a slowing global economy. Most of the major US stock indices had positive returns for the month of June. The S&P 500 rose 2.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial average gained about .7%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ posted a 6.3% gain. The Russell 2000 small cap index fell .3%. The NASDAQ’s gain was particularly note
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June 2018 Commentary

The US stock markets had a roller-coaster ride during the month of May. The month began with a rally after strong first quarter earnings were reported, trade war concerns subsided, emerging markets calmed, and political instability in Europe was shrugged off. Trade war concerns re-emerged late in the month curtailing gains. Washington is trying to gain concessions to reduce the trade deficit. The possibility of political turmoil in Italy also negatively
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May 2018 Commentary

April 2018 Market Review and OutlookAll of the major US stock indices had positive returns for the month of April, as strong earnings reports allowed the markets to regain some of the earlier losses due to proposed tariffs and interest rate increase concerns. During the month, concerns about a hawkish Fed and higher inflation expectations pushed the yield on the 10-year government bond above 3% for the first time in more than 4 years. The month ended with the yield on the 10-year bond at 2.96%.D
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April 2018 Commentary

During the first quarter, investors wavered from euphoria to despair, as record market gains in January were followed by the first “corrections” (drops of 10% from record highs) in February in more than 2 years. The Dow and S&P 500 closed out the month of March and first quarter with declines, breaking a streak of nine consecutive winning quarters. Volatility, which had long been dormant, roared back to life during the quarter, as the VIX
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March 2018 Commentary

What a difference a month makes! 2018 began with strong gains, only to see much of those gains evaporate as volatility returned to the markets amid concerns of continued interest rate hikes by the Fed. The conundrum is that interest rates are rising because of positive economic data: GDP grew 2.5% in the last quarter; unemployment is at a 17-year low; consumer confidence is high; and corporate earnings are up over 15% this quarter. Apparently interest rate
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February 2018 Commentary

 2018 is off to a good start. During the month of January the major indices were setting records on a daily basis. Worldwide markets are off to their best start in over 30 years. A well-known market adage says that so goes January, so goes the year. And historical information going back to 1950 shows that this barometer has been wrong only nine times in those 68 years, for an 87% accuracy ratio. The catalysts for the rise have been positive corporate earnings, strong global economic growth, and
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January 2018 Commentary

The big drops in stocks around the world seem scary, but in reality, are a healthy part of the market's process of buying and selling asset classes. It is important to remember that at its most basic level, money around the world is sloshing around from bucket to bucket trying to find the bucket (asset class) with the best opportunity for gain. At all times some buckets are more full than others. All money must go somewhere. Even if it stays in cash, that cash itself is a bucket and represen
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